According to Alpha Research’s latest survey on electoral attitudes in Bulgaria, GERB continues to lead with 25.5% support, maintaining a stable position compared to both the last elections and the agency’s January polling. At a notable distance but still second, the “We Continue the Change-Democratic Bulgaria” (WCC-DB) alliance holds 13.9%, managing to retain its position despite recent controversies.
Analysts point to two factors helping the WCC-DB avoid heavier losses: Democratic Bulgaria’s relatively stable base of support and the coalition’s internal consolidation following the second round of anti-corruption actions in Varna. While the initial operation in Sofia may have destabilized support, the follow-up appears to have galvanized the coalition’s electorate.
Meanwhile, support for DPS-New Beginning (Peevski’s DPS faction) has climbed to 13.1%, marking a steep erosion of backing for APS (Dogan’s DPS remnants), which now registers only 2.8%. This shift suggests that Delyan Peevski’s faction may soon consolidate much of the ethnic vote, traditionally underreported in polling due to low survey responsiveness among these communities.
No significant changes are recorded for GERB’s partners in the coalition. The Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) remains steady at 8%, while “There Is Such a People” (TISP) sees a slight dip to 4.7%. Analysts note that TISP’s base is highly reactive and prone to shifts based on both perceived political missteps and provocative public discourse.
The nationalist space, however, is witnessing subtle but important shifts. While the overall nationalist vote remains around 22%, “Revival” has dipped to 11.5%, while “Morality, Unity, Honor” (MECH) is climbing, now polling at 6.3%. “Greatness” remains stable at 4.1%. Two theories explain the redistribution: First, the anti-euro sentiment that “Revival” previously dominated is now partially absorbed by President Radev’s own vocal opposition to the euro. Second, MECH’s active populist rhetoric and online visibility appear to be attracting disaffected voters from across the broader nationalist spectrum – supporters who once shifted from far-right “Ataka” to NFSB, VMRO, and “Revival” in previous election cycles.
As with many recent Bulgarian administrations, the current ruling coalition is suffering from accumulated dissatisfaction. Only 26% of respondents rate the cabinet positively, while negative assessments have grown to 39%. Still, a segment of the public – particularly GERB voters and eurozone supporters – remains firmly behind the government. Notably, 46% of those surveyed see Bulgaria’s expected eurozone entry as a major success.
Prime Minister Rosen Zhelyazkov’s approval rating has increased by six points since January, placing him among the few political figures with a positive balance of public trust. However, broader negative sentiment toward the government is driven by both opposition to the euro and perceived stagnation in areas like healthcare, social services, infrastructure, and juvenile violence. While Zhelyazkov appears to have a solid base, analysts caution that public confidence in the cabinet will not hold without tangible progress on key policies.
Parliament continues to struggle with public trust. The National Assembly’s approval rating stands at just 8%, with 69% disapproving – numbers even lower than the combined support for the ruling parties. Speaker Natalia Kiselova performs slightly better, with a 16% approval rating and 50% disapproval, though this is still below expectations based on her party’s support.
President Rumen Radev remains the country’s most trusted political figure, with 39% positive and 33% negative assessments. However, his involvement in the euro referendum has cost him support – his approval has dropped five points since January, particularly among professionals, private sector workers, and employees in modern industries.
Among party leaders, Boyko Borissov still commands the highest level of public trust (22.3%), although his numbers have slightly declined. The fallout from law enforcement actions targeting WCC mayors appears to have hurt the coalition more than helped it, while boosting recognition for DB figures like Bozhidar Bozhanov (16.5%) and Ivaylo Mirchev (16.3%). However, many voters still don’t have a clear opinion of these two, making their future prospects dependent on how those undecided perceptions develop. Asen Vassilev of PP stands at 11.6%, roughly the same as in January, suggesting his support has remained stable through recent turbulence.
Among nationalist and protest-aligned leaders, Kostadin Kostadinov still ranks fourth in approval (14.5%) but has slipped from his January standing. Close behind is Radostin Vassilev (14.4%), whose messaging has resonated with voters critical of political elites. In contrast, Atanas Zafirov (10.3%) and Slavi Trifonov (12.4%) are seeing modest declines, attributed either to a lack of visibility, internal party dissatisfaction, or limited perceived impact on governance.
Delyan Peevski has raised his rating to 6.8% – a one-point increase – thanks to the expansion of new DPS structures. He remains the most polarizing political figure, with only 17% of voters expressing a neutral opinion about him, a lower figure than even Borissov.
These figures offer a snapshot of current voter sentiment, but Alpha Research notes that midterm polling does not reliably predict final election outcomes. Instead, the data reflects prevailing attitudes shaped by current political events and scandals.
The agency also explored deeper public perceptions about anti-corruption efforts. Asked whether prosecutors and investigators pursue ruling and opposition figures equally, only 5.9% of respondents said yes. A mere 1.6% believe the ruling parties are scrutinized more rigorously, while 38.3% feel that investigations target the opposition selectively. Meanwhile, 41.7% express skepticism that major corruption cases are being addressed seriously at all – regardless of political affiliation.
These attitudes appear to be fueling an appetite for new political alternatives. When asked whether they would vote for a genuinely anti-corruption party, 49% said yes, 25% said no, and 25% were undecided. The survey concludes that this demand for systemic change reflects growing disillusionment not with a single party, but with the political class as a whole.