The Bulgarian economy is expected to grow at a slower pace than the global one, growing by 3.5% in 2021 and by 3.8% in 2022. At the same time, however, the global economy is expected to grow by 5.5% in 2021 and 4.2% in 2022, according to a new analysis by leading commercial credit insurer EH.
For the Eurozone, the outlook is a 5% increase for 2021 and 4.2% for 2022. Uncertainty about economic development is linked by experts to several factors.
The disruption of supply chains has a very serious impact, which surprised the world in the conditions of unexpectedly fast growth after COVID-19. According to experts, their recovery will not happen until 2023.
Additional economic unrest is expected with the gradual or complete elimination of government policies to support business and people during the COVID-19 crisis.
According to the report, the economies of developing countries are still more vulnerable and unable to catch up. The main reason for this, according to Euler Hermes experts, is the delay in vaccination of the population and the smaller resources for flexible policies in support of local economies.
The Euler Hermes report also warns of continued rising inflation, which in 2021 is expected to reach 2.2% in the euro area and 4.1% in the United States. Although in 2022 experts expect a slowdown in the trend, it will remain upward, and in certain sectors is expected to be significantly higher than average.
These include the production of cars, construction materials, as well as retail and logistics and warehousing services.
Due to supply difficulties and labor market problems, production will continue to face difficulties, which will slow down global trade growth to some extent.
The updated forecast of Euler Hermes is for an increase of 8% and 6% in volume for 2021 and 2022, respectively.