Bulgaria’s GDP is expected to grow by 2.7 percent this year and by 4.9 percent in 2022, according to the winter economic forecast for 2021 of the European Commission.
In its autumn forecast from last November, the EC expected the Bulgarian economy to shrink more significantly – by 5.1% in 2020. At the time, the Commission also predicted slightly weaker economic growth of 2.6% in 2021 and 3.7% in 2020.
The Covid-19 pandemic has resulted in a serious loss in revenues from foreign tourism, which account for about three-quarters of total tourism receipt flow, the Commission points out, adding that GDP shrank by 4.9 per cent last year.
The EC expects domestic consumption to remain lower in the first half of this year, given the continuing lockdown.
The possible opening of the economy is expected to boost consumption and investment in the second half, the EC also points out.
The possible opening of the economy is expected to boost consumption and investment in the second half of 2021, the EC also points out.
The Commission expects exports to gradually recover from the second quarter onwards, but foreign tourists will only start coming back in the third quarter of the year.
However, the Commission underlines that Bulgaria faces a serious risk because of the relatively low vaccination rate in our country and the spread of the infection compared to other tourist destinations.
There is also a risk for public investment as the implementation of the recovery and sustainability plan has not been taken into account.
The EC expects that inflation, which fell to 1.2 per cent last year, will rise to 1.7 per cent this year and to 1.8 per cent next year.