In its regular quarterly economic review, the Bulgarian National Bank predicts that the country’s gross domestic product will register a decrease of 4.4 percent for 2020.
In the previous forecast in September, the expected fall in GDP was 5.5%.
Bulgaria’s Central Bank experts stress that there is considerable uncertainty about the forecast, even in the short term, because of the persistent spread of the coronavirus and the uncertain situation for lifting the restrictions.
BNB expects the prices of energy and non-energy products in dollars and euro to rise significantly in 2021.
Economic activity will grow by 3.7% in 2021 and by 3.6% in 2022, reaching the annual pre-pandemic level in 2022, the central bank expects.
The return to GDP growth rates in 2021 should result from an increase in net exports, fixed capital investment and private consumption.
Annual inflation for 2020 is 0.3%, vs. 3.1% at the end of 2019.